The U.S. job market is in trouble—and it’s worse than most people realize. Last month saw virtually no job growth, according to Moody’s, with any new roles concentrated in just three wealthy states: California, New York, and Massachusetts. But here’s where it gets controversial: While markets are soaring with optimism, private data tells a far less cheerful story. Without the usual government reports due to the shutdown, analysts are piecing together a puzzle that reveals a weakening labor market—one that’s leaving smaller businesses and certain sectors in the dust.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) typically provides critical insights into the economy’s direction, but its silence has left investors relying on private sources. Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi warns that these sources paint a bleak picture. For instance, Revelio Labs, which tracks job growth through platforms like LinkedIn, reported a modest 60,000 jobs added in September—almost entirely in education and healthcare. Meanwhile, payroll giant ADP found a startling drop of 32,000 private jobs. And this is the part most people miss: Smaller companies, already reeling from tariffs and restrictive immigration policies, are bearing the brunt of the slowdown.
Zandi notes that averaging these private estimates suggests the job market is essentially stagnant. Adding to the concern, the Conference Board reports that consumer confidence in finding jobs is at its lowest since the pandemic. Glassdoor’s data echoes this sentiment, showing a slight dip in salaries and a deceleration in wage growth. Here’s the bold question: If private data is our only window into the economy during the shutdown, are we missing the full scope of the problem?
As the government shutdown drags on, economists predict it will persist beyond mid-October, complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. UBS’s Paul Donovan aptly compares relying on private data to “viewing the economy through a keyhole”—limited and incomplete. Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Oliver Allen adds that when official BLS data finally returns, it may reveal an even grimmer reality than private estimates suggest.
So, what does this mean for the average worker? The job market is weak, and it’s getting weaker—particularly for those outside wealthy states or booming sectors. Here’s where you come in: Do you think the government shutdown is exacerbating the job market’s decline, or is this a deeper, systemic issue? Let’s debate in the comments—your perspective matters.
